Shifting Alliances, Rising Challenges 
Rethinking European security and transatlantic relations in a changing geopolitical order

The discussion opened with a stark assessment: long-standing assumptions about the transatlantic alliance no longer hold. Beth Sanner, drawing on her experience as a former presidential intelligence briefer, described U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump as highly personalized and lacking strategic coherence. Rather than being guided by a consistent framework, decisions are shaped by domestic political priorities and individual impulses. This shift has significant implications for Europe. According to Sanner, parts of the current U.S. political leadership increasingly view the European Union less as a partner and more as a competitor.

Europe between dependence and agency

From a European perspective, Monika Sus emphasized that the erosion of U.S. security guarantees forces Europe to confront a difficult reality: it must assume greater responsibility for its own security. While financial resources for defense are increasingly available, the challenge lies in translating spending into effective capabilities.

At the same time, she noted a growing convergence in threat perception across Europe. Russia’s war against Ukraine and broader geopolitical tensions have brought European countries closer together. Yet whether this shared awareness can be translated into coordinated action remains an open question.

Germany’s role: expectations and realities

Marcus Pindur focused on Germany’s evolving role within Europe. He argued that Germany’s long-standing reliance on U.S. security has contributed to the current situation. For decades, European countries underinvested in defense, benefiting from a stable transatlantic framework that is now eroding.

While Germany has made significant progress since the announcement of the Zeitenwende, including increased defense spending and shifting public opinion, important gaps remain. In particular, Pindur pointed to a lack of strategic clarity regarding Russia. Many policymakers still underestimate the long-term nature of the threat and the broader ambitions of the Russian leadership. At the same time, he noted that public awareness of security challenges has grown considerably. Support for Ukraine and for increased defense spending has risen, suggesting that German society may be more prepared for change than often assumed.

Toward a new strategic mindset

A recurring theme throughout the discussion was the need for a fundamental shift in perspective. As Beth Sanner argued, Europeans can no longer rely on the assumptions that shaped the transatlantic relationship for decades. In a geopolitical environment marked by increasingly personalized and less coherent U.S. foreign policy, alliances are becoming more flexible and transactional. Rather than looking back to former certainties, Europe must learn to navigate this new reality with greater strategic clarity and confidence.

Monika Sus emphasized that strengthening European agency requires more than increased defense spending alone. Alongside building military capabilities, Europe must overcome fragmentation in defense investment and develop greater “mental autonomy” — the ability to think and act strategically without depending on U.S. leadership. This, she argued, may prove even more challenging than the financial dimension of defense.

The speakers also underlined that credible deterrence depends on more than political declarations. A resilient Ukraine capable of defending itself remains central to European security and to deterring further Russian aggression. At the same time, visible divisions within Europe or across the Atlantic risk undermining this credibility. Marcus Pindur stressed the importance of a more realistic European - and particularly German - strategy toward Russia, as well as a more honest public debate about security threats and responsibilities.

The panelists agreed that these challenges ultimately require political leadership: leaders capable of defining strategic interests, communicating difficult realities to their societies, and strengthening cooperation across Europe.

The discussion highlighted the central questions at the heart of the FutureScape project: How can Europe assert itself in an increasingly fragmented and contested world? While the answers are still evolving, one conclusion already began to crystallize: the path forward will require greater European agency as well as a redefinition of transatlantic cooperation.